The case for optimism regarding the St. Louis Cardinals’ competitiveness in 2025 is complex. The team, which preached patience and a willingness to move beyond measuring success purely by wins, ultimately made minimal short-term roster changes. Instead, they are returning with nearly the same squad that won a respectable but insufficient 83 games last season. So, what could change? If the Cardinals are to improve rather than regress, several key factors must align.
A Healthy and Effective Rotation
The rotation’s success will be crucial. In 2024, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn combined for 53 starts and 287 innings, but neither is returning. While the team hasn’t added any proven major-league starters, it is counting on increased workloads from Sonny Gray and Andre Pallante to fill the gap. However, neither has impressed in spring training, making their potential impact uncertain. If Gray and Pallante perform as hoped, if Erick Fedde replicates his success from the White Sox, and if Miles Mikolas avoids ranking among the league’s least effective starters, the rotation could take a meaningful step forward.
Still, injuries and depth will play a role. Eleven different pitchers started games for the Cardinals last year, which wasn’t an unusually high number—especially compared to the World Series-winning Dodgers, who used 17. But the Dodgers had the depth to sustain that. For the Cardinals, young arms like Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, and the fast-rising Quinn Mathews will need to step up. If those pitchers and others can contribute strong outings when called upon, the team’s decision to rely on internal solutions rather than external reinforcements could pay off.
Offensive Breakouts from Young Hitters
The Cardinals lacked sufficient offensive production from their corner infielders last season, but the bigger issue was the lack of impact from a trio of young hitters expected to provide crucial depth. Jordan Walker spent much of the season in the minors, Nolan Gorman ended the year there, and while Lars Nootbaar was productive on a rate basis, he logged just over 400 plate appearances due to injuries.
Last season, the team’s offensive core was built around Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, but they needed reliable support from Walker, Gorman, and Nootbaar—none of whom delivered consistently. While it’s unrealistic to expect all three to exceed expectations in 2025, at least two likely need to take a significant step forward for the team to improve.
Of the three, Nootbaar seems the safest bet for a breakout, as his injuries have mostly been from fluke incidents unlikely to repeat. Walker offers a higher floor, but Gorman’s power potential and past flashes of success make him an intriguing option despite a slow start to spring training. If two of them can emerge as steady offensive contributors—producing at least 20% above league average—the lineup should be far more potent, providing a much-needed boost in the standings.
A Unified and Motivated Clubhouse
The idea that teams intentionally lose to improve their future draft position is often misunderstood—players themselves are never content with losing. While front offices may not always push for immediate success, those on the field are fully aware of the stakes. This presents a challenge for the 2025 Cardinals, as they know the organization has taken a long-term approach, yet some veterans are feeling the pressure of their closing championship window.
For the team to succeed, they must block out external doubts, focus on collective improvement, and buy into a shared sense of purpose. The familiar sports cliché about proving the doubters wrong may be overused, but in this case, it captures the reality of their situation. The prevailing expectation is that the Cardinals won’t be a strong team. To defy that, they must first convince themselves otherwise.
The good news? Winning can change perceptions quickly. If the Cardinals can string together some early success, momentum could build fast—turning doubt into belief and skepticism into a genuine playoff push.