This update feels like a continuation of previous discussions surrounding the potential Nico Hoerner trade, but since it’s part of a more substantial report from Adam Jude and Ryan Divish’s Winter Meetings Day One update for the Seattle Times, it’s still worth sharing. Nico Hoerner remains firmly on the Mariners’ radar:
“The Mariners’ primary target continues to be Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, a 27-year-old former Gold Glove winner. Hoerner, who is recovering from flexor tendon surgery in October, recorded a 3.7 WAR in 2024, with a .273/.335/.373 slash line (.708 OPS), seven home runs, and 31 stolen bases.
Hoerner is under contract for $23.5 million over the next two years.
The Cubs are reportedly looking for proven major league players in trade talks. One industry source mentioned that the Mariners could get “creative” in negotiations, potentially involving a third team to facilitate a deal.”
This naturally leads to speculation about the rumored three-team trade involving the Cubs, Mariners, and White Sox—where Hoerner could go to the Mariners and Garrett Crochet to the Cubs, with prospects involved to balance the deal (see example here). While it’s unclear how legitimate these rumors are, the idea seems plausible. That said, there are many possible scenarios, with the Cubs looking to acquire an impact starter from another team, with the Mariners acting as intermediaries to land Hoerner. These types of deals are notoriously hard to execute, so it’s best not to get too caught up in speculation. If the Mariners do acquire Hoerner, it’s likely to be a two-team trade.
I’m also curious whether teams will need to see Hoerner throwing—or at least receive medical reports confirming he’s progressing well in his rehab—before committing to a trade. If that’s the case, it could delay any deal for some time. Such a trade wouldn’t happen this week, so if it does occur at the Winter Meetings, it would likely involve the other team assuming the risk of Hoerner’s recovery. This presents a challenge for the Cubs, as they wouldn’t generate the full value of a healthy Hoerner in such a deal.
This brings me to the point that the Cubs don’t have to trade Hoerner this offseason just because of budget constraints or the rise of Matt Shaw/James Triantos. Similarly, they don’t have to move Cody Bellinger either. While there are valid reasons to trade both, it’s crucial to receive proper value in return. I want to avoid falling into the mindset of “just get a deal done.” I’m confident the Cubs’ front office shares the same perspective.