Earlier this week, we discussed three scenarios that would ensure Billy Napier’s return as Florida Football’s head coach for the 2025 season. Essentially, Napier would likely stay if he wins at least one of his final five games or recruits a top-ten class.
Despite the administration’s belief that Napier is in a safer position than many fans assume, there are still scenarios that could pressure them into a decision to move on. The last time we mentioned UCF, their fans were quick to express their dissatisfaction, so if you’re a Knights fan reading this, welcome. Consider this carefully: is it possible for UCF to defeat Florida in The Swamp? Absolutely—KJ Jefferson managed to do it last year.
However, ask yourself this: if Florida were playing Texas Tech, another Big 12 team that went 6-6 last season, and lost, would that be acceptable in Gainesville?
While Florida fans have been critical of the recruiting situation, Florida’s worst class since 2021 was ranked 18th nationally, whereas UCF’s best class in that period was ranked 39th. UCF did rank 18th in the transfer portal class this past offseason, with Florida at 22nd.
The point is, Napier will still have a more talented roster on paper. If he loses to UCF at home after a bye week, while UCF plays Colorado the week before, it will be a major issue, and Gator Nation might not be forgiving.
Losing Five in a Row to End the Season
Looking at Florida’s schedule, a 5-2 start is feasible. For instance, if Florida beats Miami, Samford, Mississippi State, UCF, and Tennessee while losing to Texas A&M and Kentucky, fans would likely be okay overall. This scenario mirrors last year’s 5-2 start with losses to Utah and Kentucky but a win over Tennessee.
However, if the final five games are as challenging as expected and Florida loses them all, they would miss a bowl game for the second consecutive year. It’s hard to imagine even the most patient boosters remaining supportive in this scenario. They might claim patience now, but their stance could change by November.
DJ Lagway Transfers
“YOu guYS arE JUsT CLIcKbaIT TRAsh, i knEW IT.”
Take a deep breath and listen.
There’s no indication from within the Gator program that DJ Lagway is unhappy. He appears to be developing well and is prepared to wait until 2025 to take over as the starting quarterback.
This discussion is exploring scenarios where even the most patient boosters might reconsider their stance. If Florida finishes with a 6-6 record, Napier might still have another year due to Lagway’s potential. Lagway is highly anticipated, and many would argue that Napier deserves at least one season with him.
However, in modern college football, nothing is certain. Lagway could experience homesickness, find he doesn’t fit well with Napier, become frustrated with potential transfers, or receive an irresistible NIL offer. While these scenarios are speculative, they represent potential reasons Napier could be dismissed before 2025.