Last week, reports surfaced suggesting that Florida State and Clemson might be in preliminary talks with the Big 12 as a potential new home if they can exit the ACC. Initially, these rumors seemed far-fetched, likely stemming from a third-party conversation that spiraled into speculation.
Or did they?
More credible sources have now started to weigh in, providing statements about the possible discussions between the Big 12 and these two prominent ACC schools. However, not much has been confirmed at this point, and it’s likely that concrete details won’t emerge until the plans are finalized. This situation echoes last year’s Pac-12 collapse, where rumors abounded but facts remained scarce until official announcements were made.
Here’s what we know so far:
1. Desire to Leave the ACC: Florida State and Clemson are eager to depart from the ACC. Both schools are frustrated with being at the Power 4 level while their in-state rivals, Florida and South Carolina, earn tens of millions more annually.
2. Big 12 Openness: Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark has stated that the conference is “open for business,” the same phrase he used last year before adding Pac-12 schools.
3. Lucrative Deals: The Big 12 is negotiating substantial deals, including a naming rights agreement with Allstate and a private equity deal, which could increase each Big 12 school’s revenue by $15-20 million annually. These deals aim to close the financial gap with the SEC and Big Ten.
4. Media Benefits: ESPN and FOX stand to gain from this potential move. Analyst Tony Altimore highlighted that 60% of ACC viewership comes from games involving Clemson, Notre Dame, and Florida State, leaving 40% for the other 15 schools. If ESPN can facilitate this shift, it might renegotiate its Big 12 deal at a fraction of the ACC’s cost. FOX would also benefit by acquiring rights to marquee games featuring these schools.
Trusted reporters like Tony Altimore, Josh Pate, and Jason Scheer have indicated that there is substance to these rumors. Scheer, notably, suggested that the move could happen within the next year. The belief is that the SEC and Big Ten are on track to create a ‘Super League,’ potentially relegating other conferences to secondary status, similar to FCS or Division II football.
Should the Big 12 succeed in securing Florida State and Clemson, it would significantly elevate the conference’s profile, making it difficult for the SEC and Big Ten to disregard. This move could effectively eliminate the ACC, creating a three-conference hierarchy with a substantial gap between them and other conferences.
If the Big 12 pulls this off, the ‘Super League’ timeline could accelerate, with three conferences each generating over $50 million annually in TV revenue, dwarfing the less than $5 million made by teams in other conferences. The transfer portal and NIL would further widen this gap, pushing teams like Boise State, Tulane, or Washington State to seek their own championships for a chance at success.
However, this scenario is complex. Unlike last year, when USC and UCLA were set to leave the Pac-12, the ACC has seen no similar movement, and its media deal extends until 2036. Other Power 4 conferences also have several years left on their deals. This complicates the timeline, making it tough to predict when or if these discussions will materialize into action. It could be a topic for the next three years, or Florida State and Clemson could join the Big 12 by 2025. Early August rumors lack substantial credibility, but the situation remains fluid and closely watched.