Renowned sports analyst Bill Connelly, creator of Rock M Nation and the SP+ metric system, offers a valuable metric called “returning production.” This metric aims to quantify the value of overall production returning rather than just individual players. While Connelly’s insights are behind a paywall, they’re worth exploring as high returning production, typically around 80%, often leads to a significant improvement in SP+. Last year, a 5-6 point jump in SP+ for Missouri translated to a substantial increase in their rating, showcasing the impact of returning production on team performance.
As we approach the 2024 season, we’re edging closer to roster normalization after the disruptions caused by the COVID bonus year. While there are still lingering super seniors and the ever-active transfer portal reshaping rosters, Connelly’s returning production metric remains a reliable gauge of team potential. Here’s how his formula projects Missouri for the upcoming season:
– Overall Returning Production: 68% – Ranked 31st
– Offensive Returning Production: 79% – Ranked 16th
– Defensive Returning Production: 58% – Ranked 68th
Comparing to last year’s stats, the 2023 Missouri Tigers boasted higher overall returning production (78%), particularly on defense (80%). This year’s team sees an increase in returning offensive production but a significant decrease in defensive production.
On a national scale, Missouri ranks among the top teams in returning production, with only Texas A&M and Texas returning more from last year’s squad. Within the SEC, Missouri is in good company, tied with Florida for overall returning production and exceeding the conference’s average.
The key takeaway is that Missouri returns a substantial amount of production, especially in a conference where many teams are facing turnover. While returning production doesn’t guarantee wins, it positions Missouri favorably for the upcoming season in a competitive SEC landscape.